Donald Trump announced today (April 16) from Washington that Israel and Lebanon have agreed to a 10-day ceasefire. According to Lebanese President Joseph Aoun and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, combat operations will stop at 11:00 PM Central European Time. NBC News reports that these are the first direct negotiations between the two countries in decades. NBC News ↗
According to PBS News, the conflict killed more than 2,100 people on the Lebanese side and displaced over a million residents. Under the agreement, the Lebanese government committed to disarming Hezbollah, which, however, was not present at the negotiations. PBS News ↗
The Strait of Hormuz remains blocked
The ceasefire on the Lebanese front does not mean an easing of the broader escalation between the US and Iran. The Strait of Hormuz — the strait between Iran and Oman through which, before the escalation, roughly a third of global oil trade flowed — has been the site of a US naval blockade of Iranian exports since April 13. According to Al Jazeera, 17 ships passed through the strait on Saturday, compared to a daily average of 130 before the confrontation began. Al Jazeera ↗
According to CBS News, Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff General Dan Caine warned: "If you do not comply with this blockade, we will use force." CBS News ↗
IEA warns of an oil shock
In its latest report, the International Energy Agency (IEA) described the situation as one of the largest oil supply disruptions in modern market history. According to the agency, flow through Hormuz fell from 20 million barrels per day in February to approximately 3.8 million at the start of April, and OPEC+ production dropped by 9.4 million barrels per day in March. Euronews ↗
Brent has oscillated between $95 and $103 over the past two weeks, with peaks of $111 and $119. According to Goldman Sachs, if the blockade continues, the average Brent price in 2026 could remain above $100 even after a potential ceasefire with Iran. OilPrice ↗
Europe remains divided
The IEA also warned that if the current situation persists, Europe could have roughly six weeks of jet fuel left. Singapore middle distillates reached a record $290 per barrel, indicating strain in the global oil products market. CBS News ↗
According to Foreign Policy magazine, the United Kingdom, Germany, and Italy are trying to support commercial shipping through the strait, but several NATO countries and the European Union as a whole declined Washington's direct request for military participation in the blockade. German Chancellor Friedrich Merz, according to the same source, made the deployment of German minesweepers conditional on a peace agreement and a UN mandate. Foreign Policy ↗
Negotiations without a deadline
Talks between the US and Iran in Islamabad, led by Vice President JD Vance, ended without an agreement. According to Vance, Tehran was not willing to provide a "confirmed commitment" that it would not pursue a nuclear weapon. Pakistan, which hosted the talks, has not yet announced another round.The National ↗
What to watch
The ten-day ceasefire is a test of whether Trump can carry the Lebanese reconciliation into a broader diplomatic framework with Iran. From an oil perspective, it will be critical how European fuel reserves and consumer prices develop in the coming weeks.
Trump announced an Israel-Lebanon ceasefire. Hormuz remains blocked, IEA warns of an oil shock
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