Day 11 of the war (evening): Pentagon promises the most intense day of strikes yet, Iran weakens but refuses to capitulate

US Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth stated on Tuesday that day 11 of the war with Iran would be "once again the most intense day of strikes," with a record number of fighter jets, bombers, and missile strikes deployed. Paradoxically, at the same time, Trump told reporters that the war was "almost complete." NPR ↗

The conflicting signals from Washington are becoming increasingly pronounced. Trump told CBS News: "I think the war is very much complete, basically." A few hours later, however, he added: "We've already won in many ways, but we haven't won enough," and promised "final victory." Hegseth, meanwhile, told 60 Minutes: "This is just the beginning." NBC News ↗

The Pentagon reports that over the past 24 hours Iran fired the lowest number of missiles since the start of the conflict, suggesting a significant weakening of Iranian military capabilities. American and Israeli forces have struck more than 5,000 targets since February 28. General Dan Caine confirmed three main objectives of the operation: destroying Iran's missile and drone capabilities, eliminating its navy to open the Strait of Hormuz, and striking deep into Iran's military and industrial infrastructure. PBS News ↗

Despite the weakening, Iran continues to attack surrounding states. In Bahrain, a drone struck a residential building in Manama, killing a 29-year-old woman and injuring eight others. Saudi Arabia intercepted two drones over its Eastern Province. Kuwait shot down six drones. In the UAE, a drone hit the industrial city of Ruwais, causing a fire at petrochemical facilities with no casualties. In Israel, sirens sounded in Jerusalem, and explosions were heard in Tel Aviv following air defense intercepts. PBS News ↗

The CEO of Saudi Aramco warned of "catastrophic consequences" for the global economy if the supply disruption continues. He called the situation "the biggest crisis the oil and gas industry in the region has ever faced." Roughly 20 percent of the world's oil consumption normally flows through the Strait of Hormuz. Shipping traffic through the strait has fallen by 95 percent, and at least seven sailors have died in attacks on tankers. NBC News ↗

Oil markets saw a sharp reversal. After Trump's threats of twentyfold retaliation for blocking the Strait of Hormuz, the price of Brent crude fell from nearly $120 to approximately $90 per barrel, a decline of 24 percent. G7 finance ministers pledged to release strategic energy reserves to stabilize the markets. Al Jazeera ↗

The International Red Cross launched an emergency appeal targeting 5 million people across 30 Iranian provinces. According to Iran's Ministry of Health, at least 1,400 people have died since the start of the war, including more than 200 children, with more than 12,000 injured. Al Jazeera ↗

In Lebanon, the government formally banned Hezbollah's military activities in an effort to prevent further Israeli retaliation. President Joseph Aoun stated on Tuesday that Lebanon is ready for direct negotiations with Israel to end the fighting. The toll in Lebanon since the start of the war: 486 dead, including 83 children, and more than 500,000 displaced. German Foreign Minister Wadephul unexpectedly flew into Israel, becoming the first EU foreign policy chief to do so since the war began. CNN ↗

The Iranian regime rejected any capitulation. Kamal Kharrazi, an adviser to the new supreme leader, told CNN that Iran is prepared for a prolonged war. A deputy foreign minister reported that China, Russia, and France have all contacted Tehran regarding the possibility of a ceasefire. Trump called the selection of Mojtaba Khamenei as the new leader "unacceptable" and declared that he "won't last long." Al Jazeera ↗

The total death toll after 11 days of war across 12 affected countries has exceeded 2,000 dead and 15,000 wounded. The eighth American soldier — Sergeant Benjamin N. Pennington (26) of Kentucky — died from injuries sustained in an attack on a US base in Saudi Arabia. The number of displaced people across the Middle East, according to the UN, has exceeded 330,000.